May 11, 2016
Way Back in 1979!

…today’s horror show was precisely foreseen. Frightening stuff from Sally J. Goerner at Evonomics.com. Dr. Goerner holds out some hope if you follow the link to her whole article, as you should.

…But the pundits are all missing the point: the Trump-Sanders phenomenon signals an American oligarchy on the brink of a civilization-threatening collapse.

The tragedy is that, despite what you hear on TV or read in the paper or online, this collapse was completely predictable. Scientifically speaking, oligarchies always collapse because they are designed to extract wealth from the lower levels of society, concentrate it at the top, and block adaptation by concentrating oligarchic power as well. Though it may take some time, extraction eventually eviscerates the productive levels of society, and the system becomes increasingly brittle. Internal pressures and the sense of betrayal grow as desperation and despair multiply everywhere except at the top, but effective reform seems impossible because the system seems thoroughly rigged. In the final stages, a raft of upstart leaders emerge, some honest and some fascistic, all seeking to channel pent-up frustration towards their chosen ends. If we are lucky, the public will mobilize behind honest leaders and effective reforms. If we are unlucky, either the establishment will continue to “respond ineffectively” until our economy collapses, or a fascist will take over and create conditions too horrific to contemplate…

Rigged systems erode the health of the larger society, and signs of crisis proliferate. Developed by British archaeologist Sir Colin Renfrew in 1979, the following “Signs of Failing Times” have played out across time in 26 distinct societies ranging from the collapse of the Roman Empire to the collapse of the Soviet Union:

1. Elite power and well-being increase and is manifested in displays of wealth;

2. Elites become heavily focused on maintaining a monopoly on power inside the society; Laws become more advantageous to elites, and penalties for the larger public become more Draconian;

3. The middle class evaporates;

4. The “misery index” mushrooms, witnessed by increasing rates of homicide, suicide, illness, homelessness, and drug/alcohol abuse;

5. Ecological disasters increase as short-term focus pushes ravenous exploitation of resources;

6. There’s a resurgence of conservatism and fundamentalist religion as once golden theories are brought back to counter decay, but these are usually in a corrupted form that accelerates decline.

The crisis reaches a breaking point, and seemingly small events trigger popular frustration into a transformative change. If the society enacts effective reforms, it enters a new stage of development. If it fails to enact reforms, crisis leads to regression and possibly collapse.


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Posted by Jerome Doolittle at May 11, 2016 05:22 PM
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Yup. Another way to look at it is as a pendulum. It swings too far in one direction, then eventually swings back in the other direction until it has gone too far. Then reverse and repeat the process.

If someone attempts to interrupt the pendulum, the clock gets busted.

The question is, will the pendulum swing freely back to the left this time? Or will somebody (Trump-like or even Hillary-like) get in the way of the pendulum and bust the works?

Incidentally, the pendulum also slices up those who attempt to get in its way. In 18th Century France it was both the resistant nobility and later the revolutionary Robespierre himself whose head were sliced off by the swinging pendulum. Okay, it was a guillotine, but you surely get the idea..

"Find my knitting needles, Henri. I'm late for the execution."
--Mme Defarge

Yours very crankily
The New York Crank

Posted by: NewYork Crank on May 12, 2016 11:40 PM
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