In a post from about a year and a half ago I began this way:
I continue to predict that our next President will be Barack Obama. Unfortunately I don’t think I’ll be able to vote for him.
A couple months back, I chipped in a couple more unsurprising predictions (“The price of gasoline will drop by at least a dollar between now and the election. After Obama’s election it will go back up.” Duh.) The only one that generated any discussion was about Obama winning big in November. This was about a week into August, which seems nearly a lifetime ago now. I was neither student nor teacher, Sarah Palin’s vault onto the stage was three weeks in the future, and I didn’t realize precisely what a piece of crap John McCain really is.
When he plucked Palin from obscurity, I initially considered it evidence of his unstable mental situation. That evening, I realized what was happening: “McCain hasn’t screwed the pooch; they’ve given up on him”.
Suppose Rove’s models show the Republicans bound for a historic thrashing in November. The only remaining question is whether they can keep the foothold of the filibuster. That requires retaining enough Republican Senate seats, which might be possible if the base turns out. McCain’s hopeless, so they can use the VP slot to rile up the base. They need those Senators re-elected, and they’ve got to get past all this corruption and scandal stuff ASAP. Republicans: the Party of Change! And Godliness! And the Democrats don’t have all the hot women, after all!
Today’s Steve Thomma piece for McClatchy agrees. His experts are looking at gains for Democrats everywhere, and they no longer consider a filibuster-proof majority out of the question.
Building on the Democrats’ sweeping wins two years ago when they seized control of both chambers of Congress, big gains this year would be reminiscent of the Republican gains in 1978 and 1980 that delivered “the Reagan Revolution.”Former Reagan political adviser Ed Rollins likened today’s landscape to that in 1980, when voters were angry at President Jimmy Carter and the Democrats and turned to Reagan in droves once they felt comfortable with the idea of him as president.
“Barack has met the threshold,” Rollins said. “Once Reagan met the threshold, people wanted to get rid of Carter and they did in a landslide. This is going to turn into a landslide.”
The best news by far is how the Republican rot is affecting candidates nationwide. Who would have thought six months ago that Saxby Chambliss would be in trouble, and Elizabeth Dole actually behind? I thought I saw signs of bad moons rising for Mitch McConnell, and I’ve long felt that Norm Coleman is going down.
But it’s not just Republican rot. It’s also Democratic excitement. And fear.
The real challenge will be after the election. Keeping our elected Democrats from going on give away spending sprees with their new political capital.
Like George Bush has done and perhaps bankrupted the nation in the process.
If I thought the Republicans were going to look out for fraud and corruption for the next four years, I might temporarily join them as a matter of principle. But I'm sure they'll be looking for faux scandals supposedly inflicted on the nation by Democrats, as they have done for the last 20 years or so.
It will be interesting watching the Republican party change itself. I'm sure that's going to happen as I saw David Brooks and other Republican representatives (not the politicians) for the party speaking to Republican "think tanks" in the past 6 months or so on C-Span. They will be doing everything they can to create logical arguments to get younger people to come to despise social security. I hope there are some Republicans who, like Eisenhower, realized that Social Security frees up the young people to become mobile and not have to stay in one place and become stagnant non achievers staying away from new opportunities to support their aged and broke parents. The same goes for health care. Many people are staying in jobs they hate and in which they are non productive simply to keep their medical insurance.
A single payer plan is the only way to support the business community while insuring that every citizen stays healthy enough to contribute to our society throughout a whole lifetime. Assuming the Democrats can create meaningful jobs for Americans. A national fast rail system that reaches into the small nooks and crannies of our nation, renewable energy projects, repair of roads and bridges and other projects that increase the productivity of the nation must be done at a fast pace. But we will need to scale back on our empire and military considerably to make these things happen and to afford the costs. But if we don't do these things and many more that we may not know about yet, or haven not created yet, we will become a third world nation before this century is over. That is a certainty.
Posted by: Buck on October 12, 2008 6:37 PM