It was with a sickening sense of foreboding that I read this; now reminded by Kohut, I do remember the unpredicted close call Dinkins had during his first run against Giuliani: Kohut says all the polls had Dinkins up by 15 and stable on Monday before the election, yet in the event, Dinkins only eked Giuliani out by 2 percent.
We all probably hate to admit it – I do – but among our fellow citizens are people who tell their friends that they will vote for a black man, but won't actually do it when the curtain closes.
My contribution to the debate: Kohut's speculation that Hillary trailed Obama in the polls in New Hampshire, but beat him in the actual voting, because bigots are afraid to tell pollsters the truth fits well with our one other firm piece of presidential election evidence thus far: Obama beat Hillary in Iowa – a place where the caucus system requires voting to be done in public, by literally standing with the friends and relatives who love you and think they know you.
Bottom line: if Obama gets the nomination, we are going to have to work tirelessly, because he'll need to be up by 13 in the polls on Monday to even have a chance on Tuesday.
I prefer the Tweety effect. That is, the press and especially the talking heads have been so obnoxious to Senator Clinton that women voted for her in New Hampshire just to give Chris Matthews the finger.
Posted by: Joyful Alternative on January 11, 2008 8:53 AMSouth Carolina could get very interesting. Although there are a number of Democratic white voters who won't vote for an African American or a woman, there is still a large contingent of support in the African American community for the Clintons.
I suspect that the results might be surprising, with Edwards finishing stronger than expected and Hillary doing better than Obama. We'll see.
Posted by: Buck on January 11, 2008 9:02 AMAnd Velvet Revolution (http://www.velvetrevolution.us/#011008) suggests there's a funny problem with exit polls versus results in machine precincts but not in hand-counted precincts. Could Republicans see Clinton as easier to beat than Obama or Edwards?
Posted by: Joyful Alternative on January 11, 2008 10:38 AMPresuably the Bradley Effect cuts all sorts of ways. How many people would never admit to being turned off by a candidate with a Southern accent like Edwards or Huckabee? With a New York accent like Rudy? By a woman like Hillary? How many people would never confess to voting for a woman just because she was a woman but would actually vote for Hillary for that exact reason even though they disagreed with many of her stands?
If we have any luck, maybe all these things will balance out so that the playing field comes out more or less even despite what the preacher calls our manifold sins and weaknesses.
Posted by: CCRyder on January 11, 2008 11:24 AM