It seems to me that many Democrats, and voters who might convinced to join them, are significantly overestimating their chances of winning the White House in 2008.
Admittedly, it looks like the Republicans are in for a drubbing in Congress. My favorite target, for example: Mitch McConnell is polling under 50% in his home state, and the Democrats are trying to decide who might succeed him.
But it’s not impossible we could be stuck with another Republican President. The DLC, it seems to me, is fighting for its life; after being snubbed by all the candidates in favor of YearlyKos, the Republican wing of the Democratic party needs to prove its continuing influence.
CNN has an interesting new poll pitting the top three Democrats one-on-one against the top four Republicans.
Given the past two months, how will Mike “Don't Mormons Believe That Jesus And The Devil Are Brothers?” Huckabee fare in his first inclusion? He’s all the rage in Iowa. Well, not so great; apparently the rage hasn’t yet translated to a larger sphere. (Though it has hit Georgia, apparently.)
On the Democratic side, Edwards performs best against each of the leading Republicans. In addition to beating Huckabee by 25 percent and McCain by 8 percent, the North Carolina Democrat beats Romney by 22 percentage points (59 percent to 37 percent)and Giuliani by 9 percentage points (53 percent to 44 percent).
McCain beats Clinton 50-48 and ties Obama at 48, with a margin of error of plus or minus three points. So it does look good for the Democrats, but it’s not a lock by any means.
“Edwards is the only Democrat who beats all four Republicans, and McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats,” [CNN’s polling director Keating] Holland said. “Some might argue this shows that they are the most electable candidates in their respective parties.“But Edwards is in third place among Democrats, and McCain is in fourth place on the GOP side. Maybe electability is not as important as it was in 2004.”
If Inevitability is gone, Clinton’s left with Experience — a cloudy subject, rife with touchy issues, sharing an uncomfortable border with Judgement.
Who can say? We've gone 27 years without a Democratic president, so maybe the voters are finally ready for a change.
Posted by: Furber on December 12, 2007 11:47 AMYes, but are there any Democrats running this year?
Posted by: Generik on December 12, 2007 1:47 PMI observed recently that what with the loons offered up by the Republic party, not that the Democrats offer much better, this cycle it's almost as if they're trying to lose - that they're throwing the election. Now I'm not so sure.
First, I'm still not unconvinced Our Little Tin Pot Dictator won't (attempted to) dissolve Congress as obstructionist, declare Martial Law and "postpone" 2008. It's been done before, the playbook is only seventy-five years old.
A second, scarier, thought occurred 'ore the weekend. Candidacies are not necessarily decided by the caucuses and primaries. Candidates are decided upon at the party's national conventions. What's to stop the Republic party national convention from deciding these guys are indeed a bunch of loons and nominating instead... Jeb Bush?
Neither will stem the ongoing dissolution - the de-volution - of what was once the united states of america, though the first, under the circumstances preferable, would hasten the inevitable while the second simply prolongs the agony. The Y2K nuts were onto something, they just didn't quite get their fingers wrapped around it - the end of america.
Posted by: Ten Bears on December 12, 2007 8:37 PMIndeed, there are old-style, FDR-era Dems running. Anti-corporate, pro-worker, pro-universal health care. For the poor as opposed to the rich. At least two of them.
Posted by: Chuck Dupree on December 13, 2007 1:17 AMBe nice if the Republican convention did nominate a Bush, a name so despised by this point that even neocons would have to steel themselves to vote for him.
Posted by: Joyful Alternative on December 13, 2007 5:50 AMRemember, in 1988, Dukakis was polling in front of Republicans. He led Bush by 14 in July 1988.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_n13_v40/ai_6819129
Posted by: stevedore on December 13, 2007 11:58 PM