A lot of people I know think Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic party nomination. As a neo-pagan slash atheist slash Zen Buddhist, I’m praying for salvation.

My impression is that the only way the Democrats can blow the 2008 Presidential election is by picking, for the third time in a row, a DLC puppet who’s so woodenly transparent that even a believable wacko like Giuliani could win. Uh, let’s see, who would that be…

Well, suppose one candidate combines high name recognition with high negatives.

Forty percent of voters view her unfavorably, more than for any of the other major candidates for president (although they are not as well known). Neither men nor women fully trust that she is saying what she really believes, the poll found.

Mrs. Clinton’s choices as a woman and a political figure have been intensely scrutinized during her 15 years on the national stage, and as she runs for president, the debate about her remains polarizing, politically and culturally.

Certainly a lot of the grief directed at Hillary is not her fault, and a good deal of it is not really about her at all. In fact I’d rank her third on the list of problem-causers in her life, with her husband second and the VRWC first.

Some of the grief comes from people who reject the concept of a woman in power, or employ some other equally rigid and poorly thought out strategy. Some of it is because she’s not a natural politician like her husband, which is an unfair but inevitable comparison given that he’s often on stage beside her. Some of it comes from people who check into her policy positions, and decide that if they wanted a Goldwater Girl they’d just vote for a Republican. (Oh right, they’re all Caucasian males…)

A lot of speculation has passed under the bridge on the question of why Senator Clinton, clearly the most conservative candidate among the top Democratic Presidential candidates, has such a huge lead in a party that is so strongly anti-war.

Consider another poll, conducted last week, from National Journal’s Hotline, which gauged whether Democratic voters know what the candidates’ positions are on Iraq. The results showed widespread misunderstanding.

Chris Bowers notes that 59 percent of Democrats believe that John Edwards is proposing to withdraw all US forces from Iraq within nine months. 71 percent believe that Barack Obama is proposing to do this. And 76 (!) percent believe Hillary Clinton is proposing to do so. Needless to say, none of them are, in fact, proposing anything of the sort — though I wish they would.

For the record, Edwards does in fact propose to withdraw all US forces from Iraq in eight to nine months, excepting only those defending the embassy, which we always have, and allowing for a possible exception to defend aid workers, according to this interview with Josh Marshall:

1. First part
2. Second part

My impression is that Obama’s current position is edging towards Edwards, reflecting the tremendous pull of the base. Richardson was already there. Biden couldn’t borrow enough to rent a clue. Dodd is right on this issue but owned by the insurance companies. Gravel is smart but too angry to handle the stresses.

And Clinton is basically a Republican.

Leaving Kucinich and Edwards.

I continue to promote Edwards. And to predict that the Democrats will make history by nominating an African-American for President, in an accommodation between the Democratic wing of the Democratic party and the DLC.

Of course this is not my preferred outcome. Of the announced candidates, I much prefer Edwards because I agree with more of his policies than anyone but Kucinich, and I think Edwards is more likely to win the general election, and thus to achieve something tangible in office, than Kucinich. In the 2004 election cycle I changed my registration to Democratic so I could vote for Kucinich. But I think running for President is an experience nothing prepares you for, and Edwards has done it and survived.

Personally my favorite post for Kucinich would be the first Secretary of the department he’s proposed, for Peace, though he’d also be great at HUD or HHS. To head the Department of Homeland Security I’d pick Gary Hart. I’d have Richardson as SecState — he’s inept in a public debate, but he’s done good work in difficult international negotations — and Zinni as SecDef, or maybe Shinseki, one of those officers who didn’t lie when the time came. I’d even be willing to consider Clark, if that made the Clinton wing happy. Then there are two Americans who are admired by at least three-quarters of the world, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Put those guys to work somehow, eh?

But economically, we’re going the FDR route, not the triangulation route. Otherwise we’re gonna need Republican votes to replace those who are outta here. Me, for instance.

The remaining question in my mind is whether Rove is attacking Clinton because he thinks the Republicans are most likely to beat her, or because he thinks she’s the Democrat who’s most like a Republican. Both seem true to me.

Is it a sign that Rove, who masterminded Bush’s two presidential victories, is worried about Clinton? Or a calculation that the GOP attacks will get Democrats to rally to her side because the GOP would prefer not to take on Democrats John Edwards or Barack Obama?

[…]

Rove might be revisiting his 2004 play book. Bush’s re-election team aimed its harshest comments at Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the eventual nominee, because it wanted Bush to take on Kerry rather than Edwards, then a senator from North Carolina.

Rove mum on Obama

The Los Angeles Times on Sunday reported that Bush’s former pollster and strategist Matthew Dowd said at a 2004 Harvard University conference that Bush’s re-election team went after Kerry because they were more afraid of Edwards.

I think you can see from the current Edwards campaign that he’s dumped the Bob Shrum style and is following his instincts. For any human being still able to feel normal emotions, it would be a strange and compelling and humbling experience to have your dying spouse decide to devote waning years to your somewhat quixotic campaign. And in the end Elizabeth is what makes me think John is the real deal. He could have a trophy wife like Fred Thompson; instead he married a woman who inspires people.

And damn it, he built her a big house, so what. (I’m tempted to insert a Ministry reference here, but it’s completely irrelevant so I’ll abstain.)

Posted by Chuck Dupree at September 17, 2007 02:32 AM

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