Ed Rollins, hard right GOP operative but reality-based when it comes to electoral politics, is somebody to listen to when he says:
I won't deal with who is going to be the Rep nominee. It is a race that is extremely close and a few capable candidates have real chances of being the nominee. But in view of the history Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate in years and is not only going to be the democratic nominee; she can be elected President. I am not happy about that, but those are the facts…
Hillary is not just a contender, I rate her a favorite. But she can be beaten by the right candidate with a unified party.
It’s like a game of “Texas Hold Em.” Your pair of two’s don't look like much but it beats one of a kind in the other players hand. Today I would say Hillary’s got 3 of a kind with aces and we need to draw to an inside straight.
It's ironic that the main reason Hillary's the favorite in the primary is that most Democrats don't really know her policy positions, which are well to the right of theirs.
In a way this might help her in the general election: realistic Republicans will certainly favor centrist Democrats like Clinton, Obama, and Biden over the Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel type, and it's not like they have anyone inspiring to choose from in their party.
But you gotta wonder if Clinton isn't the only Democrat who can lose, given that 47% negatives figure. She'll certainly bring out the wingnuts, and she'll certainly lose some of the Democratic left, plus people like me who are no longer Democrats but not out of reach.
Personally I think the Democratic party is over if it nominates Clinton. It'll be the dominant party the Rove Republicans envisioned themselves as, subsuming the Republican party but leaving it separate to give the impression of opposition. Like Microsoft. And equally, therefore, opposed to structural change.
It seems to me right now that the Democratic primaries will decide whether we stay the course domestically or change course significantly. I predict it'll be stay-the-course, but I still hope.
Posted by: Chuck Dupree on September 22, 2007 3:18 PM