The New York Times says, “Stay the course!” They grease it up with plenty of weasel-words, calling it “one last push, … steps that might lessen the chance of all-out chaos after the troops withdraw,” and claiming that clear and hold “is probably the only thing that could work,” but sagely note that it is unlikely to work in actual, real life, because “commanders in Baghdad have been given only a fraction of the troops — American and Iraqi — they need.”
Then, in a final morale-builder for the boys they are sending over the sandbags, they add: “While the strategy described above seems the best bet to us, the odds are still very much against it working.”
Finally, we get the answer to young John Kerry’s chilling question, how do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake? Here’s how: “Seems the best bet, son; the odds are still very much against it, but good luck all the same.”
Pap of the limpest order. Yet, there remains a strong, true, and quite certain way out with victory, although it cannot be implemented until January 20, 2009, because it requires American leadership of nerve, vision, toughness, and patience.
When I first laid eyes on it, I thought the Gray Lady was going to get it right. The piece is entitled, “Trying To Contain The Iraq Disaster,” which as you will see sounds quite a lot like the right approach, and the first paragraph indeed poses the essential question: “whether the United States can extricate itself without leaving behind an unending civil war that will spread more chaos and suffering throughout the Middle East, while spawning terrorism across the globe. ”
The NYT, bless her heart, wants the answer to be, “maybe.” Actually, that answer is wrong; there is no “maybe” about Iraq. The first step to right thinking on this is to acknowledge that the NYT's query is a two-part question – first, can civil war be avoided, and second, is it possible to insure that the Iraq disaster does not further destabilize the Middle East and increase terrorism?
The answer to both questions is firm and clear, not querulous and unsure, as the NYT would have it. When these question are asked and answered in a firm, strong way, we can find a lot of clarity, and a well-marked path, where the NYT finds a fog of uncertainty and nothing but a dim trail forward. Here goes: First, no, there is no way to avoid a vicious civil war in Iraq. That will happen, because of the sudden and precipitous way we pulled the lid off of the Iraqi regime, with nothing in place to replace it. We need to roll with this punch, not resist it. It is awful but true that there is more horror ahead for the Iraqis.
But next, is there a way to avoid having the Bush failure in Iraq spread chaos across the Middle East, and prevent spawning terrorism across the globe?
Absolutely, yes.
Just as it was absolutely possible for the United States and its allies to contain the communist threat after World War II.
We’ve discussed the strategy here before. It is not sexy. It does not allow broken-son presidents to prance across the decks of aircraft carriers in flight suits to one-up their fathers.
It takes decades, not years. It requires toughness and patience, not puff and bluster. It requires a union of purpose between the major political parties, not using national security as a wedge issue. It requires real sacrifice and contribution from all sectors of society, not tax cuts for the rich. It most likely requires a military draft, an up-front one, not a back-door conscription. It requires real diplomacy, not pouting and door-kicking.
Of course, we’re talking about regional containment. Coupled with a Marshall Plan-like outreach to the affected border areas.
We know it works. The threat of communism and the Soviet Union, armed to the teeth, paranoid, and spanning more than half the land mass of the globe was in every way — geographically, economically, militarily — far more massive that the threat from radical Islamic terrorist. Compared to the communist threat after World War II, the terrorists are few in number, concentrated geographically, disorganized, and not nearly as well armed.
Can we contain the crescent stretching from Syria in the east to Iran in the west, if need be? Of course we can (though as a practical matter, I doubt we’d have to do much more than create a perimeter zone around Iraq itself). This entire crescent is no bigger than Kazakstan, let alone the combination of Eastern Europe, Russia, and China.
There is no need to discount the enormity of the task and its difficulty, in military, diplomatic, and any other terms you like. This is a huge undertaking. But my point still stands: the physical containment operation is not just less than the Cold War, it is much less.
The same is true of the soft-power dimensions of containing Iraq: the Marshall Plan encircled the communists with populations marked by superiority and better lives in every imaginable sphere: economic, cultural, artistic, health, comfort, and fun.
We put the plan in place; we mobilize the world with us, taking care to include as many Arab and Islamic elements as possible. Then, we wall them behind strict borders to protect ourselves. While we allow no threats to escape, we ourselve provide a constant flow of humanitarian aid and cultural information into Iraq, since we control the borders and the airwaves. We integrate ourselves as closely as possible into the lives of the nearest nations, so the contained people can see, just over the walls, that there is a better way to live.
Then, we wait. And wait. And, wait.
And, win. There is no “maybe” about it, no “best bet.” This is something about which we can look our young servicemen in the eye, and say, “We don’t know if you personally are coming back, but this is gonna work.” We’re on to victory. Or, more precisely, our kids are.
The New York Times' base theology is not likely to change.
Posted by: Hoffmann on October 25, 2006 9:40 AM